![]() No matter how sophisticated our Earth system models may be, the quality of the forecasts they produce crucially depends on the accuracy of the initial conditions. ![]() It culminated in the operational implementation of 4D-Var on 25 November 1997, less than two years after the introduction of 3D-Var.Ī symposium to mark the 20th anniversary will be held at ECMWF on 26 January.ĮCMWF Director-General Florence Rabier, ECMWF scientists Massimo Bonavita and Tony McNally, and Professor Olivier Talagrand explain how 4D-Var works and why it is so important for numerical weather prediction. This pioneering ‘4D-Var’ technique has led to substantial improvements in the Centre’s forecasts.ĭeveloping a 4D variational data assimilation system was one of ECMWF’s biggest-ever projects. Twenty years ago ECMWF added an extra dimension – time – to the assimilation of observational data into weather models.
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